Exceptional by Design Archives - Economic Innovation Group /topic/exceptional-by-design/ An ideas lab and advocacy organization working to forge a more dynamic U.S. economy. Mon, 30 Mar 2026 13:05:06 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0.3 The Near-Term Fiscal Impact of H-1B Workers at the Federal and State-and-Local Levels /fiscal-impacts-h1bs/ Tue, 17 Mar 2026 11:00:04 +0000 /?p=24857 Download the Report Download Download the One-Pager Download By Adam Ozimek and Sarah Eckhardt The H-1B visa is the primary pathway for skilled immigrants to come work in the United States. While much is known about how individuals on those visas affect innovation and the firms they work for, [...]

The post The Near-Term Fiscal Impact of H-1B Workers at the Federal and State-and-Local Levels appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>

Download the Report

Download the One-Pager

By Adam Ozimek and Sarah Eckhardt

The H-1B visa is the primary pathway for skilled immigrants to come work in the United States.

While much is known about how individuals on those visas affect innovation and the firms they work for, their impact on government finances has received less attention. Existing research on this topic tends to focus on immigrants’ lifetime fiscal contributions. This report, conversely, shows how H-1Bs contribute to the country’s fiscal health during their three- to six-year visa periods. The report builds on our prior work and examines the effect of H-1B visas on government revenues and expenditures at the state, local, and federal levels.

The findings reveal that H-1B households generate substantial positive fiscal balances at every level of government, contributing far more in taxes than they consume in public services. The average H-1B household contributes $30,050 net annually — 2.6 times the $11,530 contribution of a typical U.S. household. At the state and local level, governments see a net average fiscal gain of $5,040 per H-1B household, with H-1B workers generating positive fiscal balances in 49 states. The fiscal benefits of the H-1B program are not exclusive to high-income states. The low-income state of Mississippi, for example, nets $4,600 per H-1B household — a figure that is higher than those of 21 other states.

The report also demonstrates how policy reforms could strengthen these fiscal benefits. Granting work authorization to all H-1B spouses and replacing the current H-1B lottery system with 91PORN’s proposed wage ranking system would combine to boost the annual federal net fiscal impact to over $65,000 per H-1B household and the average state impact to over $10,500.

By providing new state-by-state estimates of the fiscal impact of H-1B households, this analysis offers a clearer picture of how high-skilled immigration affects public budgets. At a time of heightened deficit concerns and renewed attention to high-skilled immigration policy, these findings provide important evidence for policymakers evaluating the program’s future.

See also our Agglomerations post about this report .

The post The Near-Term Fiscal Impact of H-1B Workers at the Federal and State-and-Local Levels appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
Explainer: Trump’s $100,000 H-1B fee rule /explainer-h-1b-fee-rule/ Fri, 26 Sep 2025 16:39:00 +0000 /?p=24479 Download the Analysis Download Բpublished on Agglomerations, the Substack newsletter from the Economic Innovation Group. By Sam Peak and Connor O'Brien President Trump issued a shocking proclamation last Friday, attaching a $100,000 fee to new H-1B applications in an attempt to boost wages for American workers. The announcement sparked [...]

The post Explainer: Trump’s $100,000 H-1B fee rule appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>

Download the Analysis

Բ on Agglomerations, the Substack newsletter from the Economic Innovation Group.

By Sam Peak and Connor O’Brien

President Trump issued a shocking  last Friday, attaching a $100,000 fee to new H-1B applications in an attempt to boost wages for American workers.

The announcement sparked widespread confusion. Administration officials  the text of the President’s order, while cabinet agencies issued  that left key questions about the new policy .

In this Q&A, we therefore clarify what is actually known about the policy and what remains unknown. We also describe the apparent motivations behind the rule, why it is a counterproductive policy, and alternatives that the administration should pursue instead.

Getting high-skilled immigration policy right is important to us. We have long been critical of the H-1B visa’s glaring flaws. In January, we proposed a top-to-bottom overhaul that would both prioritize truly exceptional talent and end aspects of the program that are unfair to American workers and visa holders alike.

High-skilled immigration yields enormous benefits to American workers, businesses, and communities, but sloppy policies — even those with the intention of helping American workers — can easily throw those benefits away. Unfortunately, this is one of those policies.

What does the Trump Administration’s H-1B fee rule do?

To explain, we first need to cover some quick background. The H-1B visa is available for workers in “specialty occupations” that typically require at least a four-year degree. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issues 85,000 H-1Bs to private sector workers each year, 20,000 of which are reserved for applicants with at least a master’s degree. Workers on H-1B visas hold jobs in a range of occupations, from software engineering to surgery.

Employers file petitions for H-1Bs on behalf of the workers they’d like to hire. That process involves the Department of Labor (DOL) certifying the details of the petition before passing it along to DHS, which filters for eligible applicants and then grants the visas in a random lottery to qualifying applicants. Since there are typically so many more applicants than visas available, most applications lose the lottery.

What the new fee rule says is that a worker whose H-1B petition won the lottery and was approved after September 22nd could now face a $100,000 fee upon entering the country.

The fee itself is structured as a travel ban that can be waived with a $100,000 payment to DHS.

Though not in the text of the proclamation, DHS later said in  that the fee would not apply to H-1B renewals, which must be requested by employers after three years of an H-1B worker’s employment. The proclamation also would not prevent current visa holders from traveling to and from the United States.

Finally, we should note that non-profit organizations who wish to hire H-1B workers are exempt from the lottery system. If their sponsored workers meet the visa’s criteria, their petitions are approved, and these workers do not count towards the annual 85,000 visa cap. This is a critical pathway for universities and research labs hiring scientists, researchers, or professors. Based on what we know right now, they will also face the $100,000 fee.

September 22nd? You’re saying the fee rule has already kicked in?

Yep. It technically started applying within days of the proclamation.

In all the confusion, I could have sworn I heard that the Trump administration also wants to change the H-1B lottery itself. Does this rule do that?

No, this fee rule is separate from the proposed , which would reconfigure the lottery so that those earning more relative to their professions are more likely to be selected.

Unlike the fee proclamation, which went into effect immediately, this lottery proposal requires a 30-day notice for the public to provide comments. DHS must then provide responses and revisions before the rule can go into effect.

We will have more to say about the changes to the H-1B lottery soon, but for now, we’ll direct you to  from the Institute for Progress finding that these changes would do very little to prioritize high-earning applicants and would actually boost outsourcing companies’ abuse of the program.

Okay, back to the fee rule: Other than H-1B workers up for renewal after three years, can anyone else get out of it? Any exemptions?

Yes. Based on what we know, the following groups will be exempt from the fee:

  • Current H-1B holders
  • Existing H-1B visa holders renewing their visa
  • Applicants whose entry the administration believes to be in the “national interest”
  • Doctors, presumably under the national interest exemption

Notably, the text of the proclamation also suggests that H-1B applicants who are adjusting from another visa status within the United States (such as international students or L-1 visa holders) are exempt from the fee.

And because the fee is administered through a travel ban, it doesn’t apply unless the applicant is outside the country.

Just to confirm — if an H-1B applicant has already made it inside U.S. borders, the fee doesn’t apply? Are there a lot of them?

That appears to be the case, and this would actually exempt  of new H-1B applicants. But the administration, while clarifying the other exemptions since the proclamation was signed, has yet to clarify this particular exemption.

Is there any other lingering confusion concerning who is subject to this new fee?

Because the fee is connected to the State Department’s travel ban authority, the $100,000 fee can be thought of as a “toll” for H-1Bs entering the United States. People can avoid paying this toll by entering the country on a different visa and later switching to H-1B status. It’s unclear if they will need to pay the toll later if they choose to leave and then re-enter the country on the H-1B visa.

Wouldn’t it have made more sense for the Trump Administration to simply charge H-1Bs a fee instead of shoehorning this fee rule into a “travel ban?”

While that would have been a simpler policy, it also would have also created a myriad of legal complications for the administration.

Ի, DHS can only change immigration fees every couple of years through the biannual fee schedule. This fee authority is subject to many limitations. For example, before enacting the new fees, the administration would need to send out a notice to the public explaining the rule and its effects in detail. The public would then have at least 60 days to comment on the fee changes and DHS would need to respond to these comments before allowing the rule to go into effect.

Additionally, DHS’s fee authority only allows the agency to charge the amount needed to recoup the costs of administering services. Under no reasonable assumptions does the cost of processing an H-1B application approach anything close to $100,000.

By using the travel ban authority to extract fee revenue, the Trump Administration can bypass the notice and comment requirement. And because the travel ban authority says nothing about fee revenue, the administration likely believes it can issue this fee without the same limitations specified in the DHS fee authority. Even so, this lack of reference to any sort of fee in the travel ban authority will still make this proclamation subject to legal challenge.

Is that — or any other — legal challenge likely to be successful in undoing the rule?

There is simply no way to know at this point.

And what else do we still not know about the rule?

In addition to the unanswered questions concerning who may or may not be subject to paying the entry fee, the process of paying it also remains unclear. For example, does the employer pay or can the employee also foot the bill? Does the fee get submitted to a consular office abroad or can it be collected by U.S. Customs and Border Protection?

What’s the point of this rule in the first place? Has the Trump Administration offered a justification for it?

The Trump administration’s justification for the new fee falls into two categories.

First, the administration argues that too many scarce H-1B visas today are going to outsourcing or staffing firms who use them to hire lower-wage, middle-skill workers, crowding out higher-paid applicants with truly rare skills. This is indeed the principal flaw with the program as it’s currently constructed, though it does not follow that such a steep fee is the best — or even a good — way to deal with that problem. More on why below.

Second, the administration argues that H-1B workers are depriving Americans of well-paying jobs in STEM fields, citing recent graduate unemployment estimates for computer science majors and a rising foreign-born share of STEM workers.

Curiously, the administration’s top complaints with the program are that it both admits immigrants who make too little money and, somehow, simultaneously steals high-paying, good jobs from American workers.

Wait, but I have heard that the STEM and computer science labor markets are indeed terrible. Is that true? If so, isn’t it at least possible that competition from H-1B workers is partly to blame?

Workers in STEM fields and graduates with STEM degrees earn  than their peers in other fields, and their wages have steadily risen over the last two decades even as the foreign-born share in those fields has increased.

The average worker in a STEM occupation earned twice as much in wage and salary income in 2023 as the typical worker in a non-STEM occupation.

STEM majors even earn a premium for their degree when they work in jobs that the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not consider STEM occupations. (An engineering graduate who works in finance, for example.) Controlling for degree level, age, and hours worked, STEM graduates in non-STEM jobs earn  more than their peers with degrees in other fields.

And contrary to some claims that many STEM graduates are stuck with degrees they do not use on a day-to-day basis, STEM graduates are  to say that their most recent degree is related to their job as graduates from other fields.

Data on unemployment among recent computer science graduates published by the New York Federal Reserve, and cited by the White House as evidence that these graduates are struggling, is based on a minuscule sample size and is misleading, as we have . While the unemployment rate for computer and information science graduates ticked up in 2023, the share of young CS graduates who are employed — a better measure of the labor market’s strength — remained higher than the entire 2010s.

The national labor market has been softening over the last few years, but this is not specific to STEM, which is still a high-paying set of fields and degrees for American workers and students. That foreign workers are disproportionately working in well-paying STEM fields is a feature of our skilled immigration system — suggesting it is selecting for talented people with in-demand skills — not a bug.

Bottom line: if this fee rule stays in place, what is at stake?

The H-1B, while flawed, is still the primary tool through which the United States attracts and retains high-skilled talent. High-skilled immigration is an enormous strategic and economic advantage for the United States. Our openness to top talent makes Americans wealthier, more productive, more innovative, and stronger in areas of the economy relevant to our national security.

The list of benefits that high-skilled immigrants yield for the United States is long:

  • Immigrants patent at far higher rates than native-born Americans; roughly  of American inventors since 2000 are immigrants.
  • Immigrants are  to start a business than native-born Americans, and have founded or co-founded  of all “unicorn” startups valued at $1 billion or more.
  • High-skilled immigrants make up an outsized share of highly educated workers and inventors in industries of strategic importance.
  • Immigrants or their children have founded juggernaut companies like SpaceX, Google, and NVIDIA.
  • Immigrants have been at the center of some of America’s most important scientific and technological achievements, from the Manhattan Project to the Apollo program.

Our ability to attract, integrate, and retain some of the world’s most talented workers, researchers, and entrepreneurs is a unique advantage for the United States not available to our adversaries or rivals at scale. But it is an advantage we can throw away, if we choose.

You’ve referenced the H-1B program’s flaws a few times. Its critics allege that employers exploit it to undercut American workers with cheap labor. Are they right?

Despite the benefits that the program brings, the H-1B program still contains some deep flaws. Every year, between one-third and half of visas go to outsourcing or staffing firms for middle-skill IT workers, as  highlighted. This use of the visa is genuine wage arbitrage, and candidates sponsored by such companies earn less than applicants sponsored by traditional employers.

When employers utilize these staffing firms to have H-1B workers perform labor, the contracting structure of these arrangements  from regulations that aim to prevent the displacement of American workers.

In the infamous case where Disney fired its IT staff and replaced them with H-1B workers, lawsuits from the former employees were ultimately dismissed because Disney didn’t directly hire their H-1B replacements. Instead, they utilized the services of H-1Bs employed by the staffing firm, HCL America. Because Disney didn’t technically hire these H-1B workers after firing their U.S. employees, they circumvented the protections designed to help American workers. Any sensible H-1B reform would destroy this business model by reallocating visas to top talent with high salaries instead of middle-skill IT workers.

But despite these glaring problems posed by the IT staffing firms, the talent recruited by other employers through the H-1B program still tends to be highly compensated people employed in lucrative fields. In 2025, the median base salary for all approved H-1B petitions  (not including stock compensation and other benefits). On average, college graduates on work visas earn  more than similarly employed natives.

In key fields like engineering and computer science, H-1Bs earn at least 50 percent more than their U.S. colleagues. We can raise average salaries for visa holders even further by designing the system to explicitly accept the highest-paid applicants and shutting out the IT outsourcing firms. Doing so would raise the typical salary for a new H-1B by .

If H-1Bs are for skilled, high-earning people, why am I seeing charts claiming that H-1Bs are going to cooks and cashiers?

Occasionally, critics of the H-1B program who are unfamiliar with the visa’s application process purport to show applicants for low-wage jobs in retail or food service. This data comes from the Department of Labor’s Labor Condition Application (LCA), which certifies basic facts about the job, like whether it meets prevailing wage standards for the occupation. It does not filter applicants for their eligibility for the H-1B program. People will often pull  and find that there are employers who petitioned for cooks, cashiers, baristas, and other professions making extremely low wages who get “certified” by DOL.

DOL, however, is not the agency ultimately responsible for approving or denying H-1B petitions and plays a relatively minor role in the whole petitioning process. DOL does not discern whether H-1B applicants are in “specialty occupations,” a requirement for applicants for the visa. That is the job of DHS.

Jobs eligible for the H-1B are those requiring specialized knowledge and at least a bachelor’s degree. The low-wage jobs that appear in LCA data simply aren’t eligible for the program, and DHS swiftly throws out those applications. Even most Registered Nurse positions are , since people can enter this field without completing a four-year college degree. After filtering out these ineligible applications, DHS conducts the lottery, of which only  of applicants win each year.

DHS issues an  on workers awarded H-1B visas, including a breakdown by occupation. You will not find in those reports cashiers, cooks, or any of the other low-wage service jobs that appear in LCA data. They are not eligible for the H-1B.

What do we know about the contributions and effects of H-1Bs on the economy?

The H-1B lottery is a terribly designed policy. But one small silver lining is that its randomness makes it easy for economists to study the program’s effects on workers, firms, and communities by providing a natural experiment.

One high-quality  finds that when firms in a given city win more H-1B applications through the lottery, those firms become more productive on average, and wages rise for native-born workers in that city.  finds that regions that win more H-1B visas experience a jump in entrepreneurship, while low-skilled H-2B arrivals produce no such effect.

For promising, VC-backed startups, winning the H-1B lottery  the odds of receiving additional financing and of eventually going public. The H-1B visa’s contributions to startup success are especially important given that young firms are a of net U.S. job growth.

We could go on. We recommend  of the evidence on high-skilled immigration’s effects on innovation, which are large despite the program’s obvious problems.

Put it all together for me: Based on what we know, what are the likely economic effects of the rule?

The fee will almost certainly reduce the number of H-1B applications, dramatically raising the price for companies wanting to hire candidates currently residing outside the United States.

However, unless the fee is somehow also applied to applicants changing their status from another visa type within the United States, the 85,000 visas made available each year will likely all be used. But if those petitions are also subject to the fee, some visas may ultimately go unused.

Employers will seek routes around the cap, first sponsoring workers for other visas before bringing them to the United States and sponsoring them for H-1Bs. Outsourcing companies, purportedly a target of the new fee, may be well-positioned to take advantage, sponsoring candidates for L-1 or other visa types and then subsequently sponsoring them for an H-1B that is not subject to the fee. This rule could also favor those who enter as international students and adjust to H-1B after graduating (though  changes to the H-1B lottery could easily cancel out any advantage to international students from the fee).

Such workarounds would be less valuable if the administration ultimately decides to apply the fee to individuals who enter on some other visa category, change to H-1B while inside the country, and then seek re-entry after traveling abroad. This penalty on travel would be a major inconvenience that could encourage employers to  their talent and operations abroad.

Finally, it’s worth noting how the fee could hurt American scientific research. Non-profit research labs and universities, exempt from the annual 85,000 visa cap, do not appear exempt from the $100,000 fee. This will undercut our ability to recruit top scientists, researchers, and professors from around the world. For those adjusting stateside from another visa, unresolved questions around travel may mean that some researchers who get around the fee initially may not be able to travel abroad to talks or conferences.

That’s an awful lot of downsides. Granting that the proposed fee is a bad idea, what is a better way to fix the flaws in the H-1B?

The H-1B has two fundamental problems, neither of which is addressed by the fee.

First, the random lottery advantages outsourcing companies hiring lower-skilled workers over innovative firms that have identified top talent to sponsor. The outsourcing companies don’t need to win a visa for any particular applicant. They just need to win enough visas to fill jobs, so they flood the system with applications. In contrast, for a company identifying a rare talent, low lottery odds mean the H-1B will most likely not allow them to hire that person, regardless of their salary. The enormous amount of uncertainty embedded in the H-1B process works far better for the business models of firms hiring lower-paid, more replaceable talent.

The second problem is H-1Bs face frictions when changing jobs or getting a promotion. Employers are on the hook for thousands of dollars in legal costs to hire someone on an H-1B changing jobs, and they are restricted to employment in a set of “specialty occupations.” Native workers are not subject to these restrictions, which probably allows employers to modestly underpay visa holders compared to what they would earn in their absence. These restrictions often raise allegations of “indentured servitude.” That’s not accurate — depending on the year, between 10 and 15 percent of H-1Bs change employers annually. That’s below the roughly  share of the overall workforce that changes jobs in a given year and a sign of the effect these frictions have, even if the harshest critiques of the program are exaggerated.

Both of these problems can be solved. The H-1B system should prioritize applicants according to salary (with modest boosts for younger applicants). This would provide firms with the certainty that if they offer a sufficiently high salary, they will have little trouble getting a visa for star talent. Such an approach would significantly raise the pay of the average H-1B awardee and destroy the business model of H-1B outsourcing companies overnight. At the same time, we should reduce barriers to job-to-job mobility, removing arbitrary restrictions on visa holders’ occupation, location, and ability to change employers in search of better pay or conditions. The system should set a high bar for incoming talent, but set out a smooth process for those who exceed it. See Chapter 4 of our January report for more details on how it would work.

What’s next?

For now, the fee is technically in place, but we don’t yet know how the administration is enforcing it. We are also still waiting for the administration to clarify possible exemptions. Finally, we expect the proclamation to face immediate legal challenges, which may ultimately result in the fee being ruled illegal.

We are still assessing the effects of the administration’s new H-1B weighted lottery rule proposed this week. We will have more analysis on that proposal soon.


UPDATE: An earlier version of this report included a claim that 20 percent of H-1Bs change jobs each year. That’s not right. USCIS has in recent years  incorrect totals for petitions from H-1B workers to change employers, which resulted in this error. In recent years, the true rate has been roughly 10 to 15 percent.

The post Explainer: Trump’s $100,000 H-1B fee rule appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
$100,000 Fees for H-1Bs? There’s a Better Way https://www.wsj.com/opinion/100-000-fees-for-h-1bs-theres-a-better-way-lottery-auction-skill-78b2a5b6?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos1 Thu, 25 Sep 2025 15:19:25 +0000 /?p=24476 The post appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
The post appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
Trump’s $100K H-1B visa fee rattles Silicon Valley https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5518278-h1b-visa-fee-shockwaves/ Wed, 24 Sep 2025 13:51:33 +0000 /?p=24474 The post appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
The post appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
Trump’s Overhaul Of H-1B And EB-5 Visas To Spark Legal Firestorm https://www.forbes.com/sites/andyjsemotiuk/2025/09/22/trumps-immigration-overhaul-of-h-1b-and-eb-5-to-spark-legal-firestorm/ Tue, 23 Sep 2025 16:37:54 +0000 /?p=24471 The post appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
The post appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
Student visas are a critical pipeline for high-skilled, highly-paid talent /student-visas-are-a-critical-pipeline-for-high-skilled-highly-paid-talent/ Thu, 12 Jun 2025 13:58:28 +0000 /?p=24138 Բpublished on Agglomerations, the Substack newsletter from the Economic Innovation Group. By Connor O'Brien Critics of high-skilled immigration like to portray temporary student visas as a source of cheap labor, making it easy for employers to undercut the wages of American workers.(((Restrictionist groups like the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) and left-wing groups like the Economic [...]

The post Student visas are a critical pipeline for high-skilled, highly-paid talent appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
Բ on Agglomerations, the Substack newsletter from the Economic Innovation Group.

By Connor O’Brien

Critics of high-skilled immigration like to portray temporary student visas as a source of cheap labor, making it easy for employers to undercut the wages of American workers.[1]

The critics use this claim to support their preference for denying foreign graduates of American universities access to the U.S. labor market. And they might well get their way.[2]

Do the critics have a point?

ճ looks at workers in the United States with at least a bachelor’s degree, identifying immigrants who first arrived on a student visa, such as the F-1 or J-1. The latest update to the survey has just arrived, and what it shows clearly is that workers who first come to the country on student visas not only thrive, but typically out-earn their native-born counterparts.

The data also shows that foreign graduates are more likely to work in jobs performing R&D or to be entrepreneurs, both of which create beneficial spillovers and job opportunities for American workers.

Exactly the opposite, in other words, of what the critics allege.

While our skilled immigration system is in need of deep reforms, our imperfect status quo attracts productive workers and talent that yields benefits across the economy. Cutting off this key source of talent would be an enormous mistake.

Workers who first arrived on student visas earn high salaries.

As of 2023, there were about 2.1 million year-round, full-time workers in the United States who first came to the country on a student visa. These workers earned a median salary of $115,000, compared with $87,000 for the median native-born worker with at least a college degree — a 32 percent premium.

Student visa arrivals’ wage premium holds firm across age groups. Bucketing the college-educated workforce by age, the typical worker who arrives on a student visa earns more than the typical native-born worker in every age group, with the biggest gap among early-career workers.

Across education levels, the earnings of student visa arrivals still compare favorably to those of natives. The typical student visa arrival with only a bachelor’s degree earned $80,000 in 2023, the same as full-time, native-born workers with only a bachelor’s degree. Student visa arrivals earn less than native-born graduates with professional degrees (e.g., JD or MD), but out-earn natives with master’s degrees or doctorates.

Professional degrees make up only a small fraction of degrees for both natives and student visa arrivals. Workers who first came to the United States on a student visa are nearly twice as likely to have a master’s degree as native students and are more than six times as likely to have a PhD.

The wage premium received by workers who arrived on student visas, compared to their native-born counterparts, holds across the industry groups with the most student visa arrivals. In the information sector, the typical student visa arrival earns $86,000 more in salary income than the typical native-born worker in the sector.

Student visa arrivals from the two largest sending countries — India and China — earn particularly high salaries. The typical student visa arrival from India working full-time and year-round earned $146,000 in salary income in 2023, more than two-thirds higher than the typical native-born college graduate. Chinese graduates, too, earn well above both the typical native-born graduate and the typical student visa arrival. The administration’s plans to “” the visas of Chinese students (and their ability to work after graduation) may undermine this source of talent that is evidently in high demand from American companies.

Student visa arrivals are much more likely to do R&D work.

As if the impressive earnings of international graduates in the labor market weren’t enough, student visa arrivals are much more likely than native-born students to be engaging in basic or applied R&D. In fact, they perform R&D at more than twice the rate of their native-born counterparts. Further impeding international students’ ability to stay and work after graduation would be a major blow to the United States’ R&D ecosystem.

Student visa arrivals are more likely to become entrepreneurs after obtaining permanent residency and citizenship.

Student arrivals have higher rates of entrerpreneurship than native-born college graduates. In 2023, 11.3 percent of student visa arrivals were self-employed, compared with 10.3 percent of native-born college graduates.

It is worth noting that about one-fourth of all workers who first arrived in the United States on student visas remain on temporary visas, which heavily restrict entrepreneurship. The H-1B, for example, is only usable for founders in extremely limited circumstances. Entrepreneurship rates for student visa arrivals rise after obtaining permanent status. Nearly 15 percent of student visa arrivals who have become naturalized citizens were self-employed in 2023. Making temporary visas friendlier to entrepreneurs, perhaps by rolling out a startup visa, would further boost skilled immigrants’ rate of entrepreneurship.

The growth of Optional Practical Training (OPT) is a symptom of our skilled immigration system’s dysfunction, not a cause.

Critics of student visas aren’t entirely wrong: the system today does have flaws. OPT, which allows F-1 student visa holders to work after completing their degree, requires recent graduates to work in jobs directly tied to their field of study, an arbitrary restriction that indeed creates unfair competition with native workers. If international students are allowed to work post-graduation, they should be on an equal footing with native students and allowed to work in any occupation or industry.

Իas we have written extensively, degrees are not the right criteria that the U.S. should use to select immigrants. Proposals to “staple green cards to diplomas” would be a missed opportunity, likely sparking growth in degree programs of questionable economic value.

But the  of the OPT program over the last decade is largely not a function of abuse by either schools or students. Rather, it is a product of our inability to expand other work visas to keep up with demand or economic growth. The H-1B visa, for example, is now akin to “,” where workers face low odds of winning a visa regardless of their skills or how much an employer is willing to pay them.

Absent long-overdue reforms to the rest of the high-skilled immigration system to expand high-skilled visa pathways and prioritize applicants according to earnings, OPT remains a critical bridge for American firms to sort through recent graduates and identify the talent worth investing in long-term. Ending international graduates’ ability to work would not remove low-wage competition for native-born workers and graduates. Instead, such a move would deprive the U.S. economy of highly paid workers whose skills are in high demand.

The Github repository for this analysis is available .

Notes

  1. Restrictionist groups like the  (FAIR) and left-wing groups like the have long questioned the value of temporary work visas and Optional Practical Training (OPT) on the grounds that such workers have low wages and compete unfairly with natives. A recent bill  in the House would abolish the OPT program, which allows international students to work in the country after graduation.
  2. President Trump’s nominee to head the United States Customs and Immigration Services, Joseph Edlow, has  to end Optional Practical Training (OPT), which allows international students to work in the country after graduation.

The post Student visas are a critical pipeline for high-skilled, highly-paid talent appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
The U.S. loses most international graduates it trains. That problem is about to get worse. /us-loses-most-international-graduates/ Fri, 30 May 2025 18:38:57 +0000 /?p=24013 Բpublished on Agglomerations, the Substack newsletter from the Economic Innovation Group. By Connor O'Brien The last two weeks have yielded a series of blows to the United States’ ability to attract and retain top talent from abroad. Joseph Edlow, the President’s nominee to lead the United States Customs and Immigration Services (USCIS), told Congress last week that [...]

The post The U.S. loses most international graduates it trains. That problem is about to get worse. appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
Բ on Agglomerations, the Substack newsletter from the Economic Innovation Group.

By Connor O’Brien

The last two weeks have yielded a series of blows to the United States’ ability to attract and retain top talent from abroad.

Joseph Edlow, the President’s nominee to lead the United States Customs and Immigration Services (USCIS),  last week that he would end the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, which allows recent graduates on F-1 visas to work in the U.S. after finishing their studies.  recent graduates are currently working on OPT, all of whom are now potentially at risk of being asked to leave the country.

Earlier this week, the Department of Homeland Security rescinded Harvard University’s ability to enroll international students entirely. This was followed by an announcement that the State Department would “” visas for Chinese students, “including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields,” in addition to revising visa criteria to “enhance scrutiny of all future visa applications from the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong.”

Chinese-born graduates are a key source of technical talent for the United States;  of Chinese STEM PhD graduates remain in the U.S. long-term. Economic espionage and intellectual property theft linked to the Chinese Communist Party are serious, ongoing concerns. But the  find that the benefits of continued openness to top STEM talent from China dwarfs these costs, suggesting that more effective vetting is a better path forward.

Together, these moves to tighten restrictions on international students and high-skilled workers would worsen one of the biggest problems with America’s immigration system: we fail to keep most students we train.

Last June, we published estimates of international student retention, finding that a majority of international students who graduate from American universities ultimately leave the country. Today, using the latest data, we can update these estimates. As of 2023, only 37 percent of international graduates earning a bachelor’s, master’s, or doctoral degree between 2012 and 2021 remained in the United States. That includes fewer than 1 out of every 5 bachelor’s degree recipients.

Over time, this failure to retain international graduates adds up. Over the decade for which we have data, an estimated 1.4 million international students graduated from American universities but are no longer here.

As we outlined in our January report, Exceptional by Design, high-skilled immigration is an enormous economic and strategic asset to the United States. With well-designed policy, high-skilled immigration boosts innovation and business formation, reduces inequality, accelerates economic growth, and reduces the federal deficit. Our ability to attract and integrate top talent is a tool no rival or competitor has at their disposal. But it is also an advantage we can blow, if we so choose.

—ĔĔĔĔĔĔĔĔĔĔĔĔĔ

Please visit  if you’re interested in seeing the data used in this article.

The post The U.S. loses most international graduates it trains. That problem is about to get worse. appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
Designing a Gold Card Visa to Maximize Benefits to American Communities /designing-a-gold-card-visa/ Wed, 02 Apr 2025 14:12:38 +0000 /?p=23859 Բpublished on Agglomerations, the Substack newsletter from the Economic Innovation Group. By Sam Peak and Connor O'Brien In February, President Trump first proposed a “Gold Card Visa” for high-net-worth individuals to immigrate to the United States, with a suggested price tag of $5 million.  If designed correctly, the new Gold Card could advance several administration [...]

The post Designing a Gold Card Visa to Maximize Benefits to American Communities appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
Բ on Agglomerations, the Substack newsletter from the Economic Innovation Group.

By Sam Peak and Connor O’Brien

In February, President Trump first a “Gold Card Visa” for high-net-worth individuals to immigrate to the United States, with a suggested price tag of $5 million. 

If designed correctly, the new Gold Card could advance several administration and national priorities like reducing the federal budget deficit, curtailing the flow of fentanyl at the border, and financing disaster relief. As a simpler alternative to the cumbersome EB-5 investor green card, the Gold Card Visa could also yield much larger and more certain benefits for American communities depending on how it is structured. 

The existing system for international investors has major shortcomings 

The EB-5 Investor Immigrant Program established by the Immigration Act of 1990 allows foreign nationals to obtain conditional permanent residency if they invest at least $1,050,000 in a new commercial enterprise that creates 10 or more jobs. This threshold is lowered to $800,000 if the investment is directed to a Targeted Employment Area (TEA), a rural or high unemployment area, or an infrastructure project. successful EB-5 applicants qualify under the lower threshold. 

Investor visas are especially challenging to design in practice. Most require some empirical demonstration of impact, involving both lengthy business plan reviews from bureaucrats and expensive economic consultant analyses. Such requirements make investor visas unviable for high-risk, high-growth startup founders operating on tight timelines. The EB-5, which is difficult to use and whose economic impact remains highly uncertain, is no exception. 

The EB-5 visa has by far the longest processing times in the U.S. immigration system. The median applicant filing a petition for the EB-5 waits for a decision. Afterward, the applicant receives a provisional green card and must wait two years to see if jobs were created from their investment. For the median applicant, the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) takes anywhere from 17 to 49 months to verify that the investment did create jobs. If the applicant is successful, they are finally granted a full green card.

Below is a picture of what the EB-5 paperwork looks like for proving job creation. This is a small portion of the total paperwork that EB-5 applicants must submit to USCIS.

Credit: Pace Immigration on X/Twitter:

While the EB-5 visa requires that investments each create 10 jobs, the Regional Center pathway that receives the of EB-5 investments allows 90 percent of those jobs to be “indirectly” created, either through spending on outside vendors or “induced” growth through employees’ spending power. 

To demonstrate this job creation, applicants typically spend thousands of dollars on professional economists to run or models, which assume certain ratios of job creation to investment by geography. 

Notably, these estimates only model local job creation. Such models are not capable of determining whether an investment increases aggregate, nationwide employment. There is little solid, empirical evidence that the EB-5 program as constructed today generates substantial job growth that wouldn’t happen without the program. 

Job creation is certainly one of the main benefits of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), but when the process takes nearly six years and still only generates speculative estimates of job creation, it’s time to consider alternatives. 

As the EB-5 Regional Centers come up for , lawmakers should pursue bold reforms that make the program more straightforward to use, flexible, and directed towards outcomes that are easy to measure. 

For now, the flaws in the EB-5 program demonstrate mistakes to avoid when designing a new Gold Card Visa. Below, we make two suggestions. 

Approach 1: Charge a $5 million fee (or use an auction) to reduce the deficit. 

The best option for a Gold Card Visa is President Trump’s original proposal: use revenues to reduce the federal deficit. 

Policymakers can do this in one of two ways. First, the Gold Card program could charge $5 million per applicant, in line with the President’s original proposal. In this case, the limiting factor on the amount of revenue a Gold Card could generate is the number of applicants willing to pay this fixed fee. 

According to from Knight Frank, a real estate consultancy, there are about 1.4 million people living outside the United States with a net worth of at least $10 million. It is unclear, however, how much take-up there would be among this population if the U.S. rolled out a Gold Card Visa. 

Alternatively, the Gold Card program could maximize revenue by using a to allocate a fixed number of visas. USCIS would offer each visa at a high starting price ($5 million), gradually lowering the price until the first bidder accepts. This process should be subject to a minimum bid, perhaps $1 million, to ensure each visa auctioned off generates significant revenue for American taxpayers. 

Depending on the size of the Gold Card program and auction results, the program could generate tens of billions in annual revenue. On the conservative side, a 10,000 visa per year program (the current size of the EB-5) which sells Gold Card Visas for $1 million each (the approximate investment requirement for the EB-5 today) would raise $100 billion over a decade. The President’s proposed $5 million price tag offers a potential upper bound; if 10,000 visas were issued each year with a cost of $5 million each, the program would raise $500 billion over a decade. That would be enough revenue to fully offset the cost of extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s Child Tax Credit expansion for a full decade. 

At this stage, revenue estimates from a Gold Card program are highly speculative. While there are global surveys of desire to migrate to the United States, there are no surveys specific to high-net-worth individuals who might be interested in a Gold Card. Auctioning off a fixed number of visas rather than setting an up-front price would still allow for a price of $5 million or more while being responsive if interest at that price proves limited. 

It’s important to note that the initial sale price is not where the fiscal benefits end. Applicants who can afford the entry price will almost certainly be large net fiscal contributors in subsequent years, starting and expanding businesses that pay taxes. Compared with the existing EB-5 program, allocating Gold Card Visas in this way would yield far larger public benefits and federal revenues. Pre-pandemic estimates suggest of investment takes place through the EB-5 program each year; only a small fraction of this investment likely returns to the Treasury in the form of tax receipts.

Approach 2: Make the Gold Card Visa a revenue source for border security and disaster relief. 

Alongside or in lieu of deficit reduction, revenue from a Gold Card Visa could be earmarked for two homeland security priorities: border security and disaster relief. 

First, Gold Card Visa fees could be used to supplement U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP) , which enables private entities to help fund new inspection lanes, repair projects, and other infrastructure investments that enhance the vetting of cross-border traffic. 

To maximize the effectiveness of this revenue, lawmakers should take steps to streamline CBP infrastructure projects, which are frequently delayed. One way to reduce this red tape is to eliminate the involvement of the General Services Administration (GSA), which adds to government projects. Lawmakers have previously introduced the to get GSA out of the way for projects costing less than $300,000. But Congress should go further and exempt all CBP projects from GSA’s review if it decides to use the Gold Card Visa revenue for projects at ports of entry.

Gold Card Visa funding can also be used to rectify gaps in CBP staffing. Currently, the agency has to operate newly installed image detection equipment at ports of entry. In 2024, CBP estimated a shortage of 5,800 officers and anticipated an in officer retirements by 2028. Based on DHS’ FY 2025 budget, hiring 1,000 additional CBP officers would cost just . With just one-fifth of a possible $50 billion in annual Gold Card revenues, CBP could more than double the number of officers staffing American ports. 

Second, some portion of Gold Card Visa revenue could be set aside for disaster relief. The EB-5 program has supported rebuilding in the aftermath of disasters like Hurricane Maria and Superstorm Sandy, but the glacial pace of its application process means it cannot provide swift relief or quick investment. Merely half of a possible $50 billion in annual Gold Card revenue would cover Congress’ for FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund. 

As FEMA undergoes an overhaul to grant states more autonomy over disaster response, earmarking Gold Card fees or auction revenues to could more effectively meet the local needs of residents. The uses of such funds can be guided by recommendations outlined in the forthcoming , which will identify the greatest risks to U.S. infrastructure and help form priorities for public and private investments.   

Conclusion

President Trump’s Gold Card Visa proposal recognizes two major failures of America’s investor visa. First, applying for the EB-5 investor green card is an unacceptably long process that can take up to a decade from start to finish, making it a poor fit for the highest-potential founders with capital ready to deploy immediately. Second, the requirements of EB-5 investors, while well-intentioned, do not yield clear, certain, and prompt benefits to the American people. These flaws need fixing. Alongside an overhaul to the EB-5, the new Gold Card Visa should avoid those flaws in the first place.

The post Designing a Gold Card Visa to Maximize Benefits to American Communities appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
A pro-growth immigration policy https://www.axios.com/2025/01/14/skilled-worker-immigration-h1b-trump Tue, 14 Jan 2025 17:05:50 +0000 /?p=23743 The post appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
The post appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
The Right Way to Reform High-Skilled Immigration https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/01/the-right-way-to-reform-high-skilled-immigration/?bypass_key=Sjc5T0VyZE1vZStiTUdiTVQxbFFSZz09OjpWV05hYlVFclYxUkxaaXR2WlhCS1RETXJZblExUVQwOQ%3D%3D Tue, 14 Jan 2025 14:33:17 +0000 /?p=23734 The post appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>
The post appeared first on Economic Innovation Group.

]]>